We just reported on some promissing commercial retail real estate news, yet according to MarketWatch, commercial real estate markets in general should weaken in the months ahead, according to reports released May 21, 2008 by trade groups representing realtors and architects. Perhaps the most important thing we can all do, at this point, is simply to be prepared.

• Commercial real estate leading index fell 0.7% in the first quarter, the third straight decline, the National Association of Realtors said. The index is 0.8% below the level in 2007, the first negative year-over-year showing in five years. The index is based on 13 separate indicators, including industrial production, REIT prices and returns, job growth, income growth, business sales and durable-goods shipments.  
• American Institute of Architects reported its architectural billing index rose to 45.5 in April from the historic low of 39.7 in March, with scores below 50 indicating declining billings. The AIA index leads nonresidential construction spending by six to nine months. An index tracking new inquiries rose to 53.9 from a record low 48.  
• The Federal Reserve, two weeks ago, said 78% of banks in its quarterly survey had tightened lending standards for commercial real estate loans, and 52% reported weaker demand for such loans.
• Attitudes of realtors who specialize in office and industrial properties said they anticipate a much lower level of business activity in the coming quarters.
• Moody’s & MIT, on Monday, May 19, 2008, as we reported, stated that commercial real estate prices fell 2.3% in March, the steepest one-month decline in at least eight years. Retail property prices were down 5.7% from their peak last year.

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