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Archive for the 'Historical Perspective' Category

Government Stimulus: A pictures worth a thousand words

By: Myles, April 9th, 2009

We all learn and process information differently. Some have found it difficult to understand the current financial crisis and what the government is doing to stimulate the economy.
So here is another way to visualize the capital allocated from/to financial companies during the current financial crisis.
Interestingly, the chart created by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods concludes that […]

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Commercial RE: Times they are a chang’in … and fast!

By: Myles, April 8th, 2009

As published in Zero Hedge, where their tag line signals the sentiment ……  “on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero,” it is reported that the result of the stress test in the just published S&P “Scenario Analysis: Standard & Poor’s Expects the Downgrade Risk To Be High For Recent-Vintage U.SCMBS […]

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Leading Indicators, Still Lagging

By: Myles, March 18th, 2009

The Architecture Billings Index, which is compiled from a monthly survey of architecture firms around the U.S., was up a modest two (2) points in February 2009,  but down six (6) points from a year earlier, pointing to a continued lack in demand for design services.
The February 2009 rating was 35.3, up from the historically low […]

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Foreclosures: Times they are a chang’in ….

By: Myles, March 12th, 2009


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A Very Negative Leading Economic Indicator

By: Myles, February 18th, 2009

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped to a historic low in January 2009.
Because there is typically a nine- to 12-month lag between an architect billing a developer and that developer spending money on construction, the billings index is considered a leading economic indicator of nonresidential construction activity.
AIA compiled the calculated January’s 2009 overall ABI rating […]

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Negative News or Opportunity: Baltimore Commercial Credit Crunch

By: Myles, January 9th, 2009

One mans trash is another mans treasure. Here is a report to mull over, for those with cash and/or financing facilities. Is the glass half-full or half empty? Depends ….
As reported by the Baltimore Business Journal, the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. region ranks fifth in the nation for metropolitan areas hardest hit by the nationwide credit crunch, […]

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The Next Ticking Bomb for Banks: Commercial Real Estate

By: Myles, January 7th, 2009

What appeared to be the worst possible case a few weeks or months ago, for many commercial real estate developers and owners, now appears to be the most likely and negative outcome; vacancy rates are rising sharply with effective rents falling, similarly, with financing options dwindling. Some predict 2009 to be the worst year since ‘91-’92. […]

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More Loan Modifications on the Way

By: Myles, January 5th, 2009

As we suggested in this Blog on November 7, 2008, democrats are once again planning to reintroduce legislation that would allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of troubled borrowers’ loans — a move that industry opponents say will lead to higher interest rates and down payments for all borrowers.
Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., said he […]

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2008: An Incredible Year in Review

By: Myles, December 31st, 2008

2008: A Year in Review. From tepid bad news in January ‘08 to full fledged financial Armageddon just twelve short months later. A financial year like never before.
Scan the months and the stories. Review the list of the hundreds of Blog entries. First, from a macro-level to get the full sense of how this […]

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Leading Economic Indicator: Lowest Levels, Ever

By: Myles, December 17th, 2008

More bad news. The Architecture Billings Index, which is compiled from a monthly survey of architecture firms around the U.S., is at its lowest level since the American Institute of Architects survey began in 1995.
A Leading Economic Indicator: Since the index reflects an approximate nine- to twelve-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending, […]

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